A Japan-U.S. Alliance

A pressing issue…

Serizawa: If China invaded Taiwan, what would Japan do about it?

Honda: The U.S. would likely request permission from Japan to use U.S. bases to support and supply Taiwan.

Serizawa: Would Japan support the U.S.?

Bristling with technology

Honda: Japan’s leaders are nowadays more able to persuade the public that the nation needs defending. The Self Defence Force is that in name only. Even the Coastguard ships for example are sophisticated and well-equipped vessels, ranking with the best in the world.

Serizawa: So Japan is moving away from being a pacifist country?

Honda: Russian and Chinese leadership policies are forcing a rethink on that and prodding Japan to seek an alliance with the U.S.

Serizawa: Are hostilities becoming more of a reality?

Honda: It would be a difficult operation for China to invade Taiwan. It could also result in Japanese military aircraft being deployed alongside US aircraft to defend and resupply Taiwan.

Serizawa: If that happened, might China retaliate by launching missiles against military bases in Japan?

Honda: We could hope that diplomacy could prevent that. And that China remains concerned with its international image, particularly among the Belt and Road countries.

Serizawa: We might hope so, but I guess nobody knows what China will do.

_______

Voice-over

It has been a long period of relative freedom from powerful blocs going to war against each other. But with China and Russia seeing interests in linking up, western countries sense a threat. This is leading to arms build-up and exercises. Can we rely on diplomacy or should people in the area be making contingency plans?

The big country across the straits...

So far yet so near...

A container ship passes an outlying island…

Host: Look through the binoculars. Mostly Maersk. Heading for Naha I would think.

Guest: Paradise. The garden below, merging into the sea faraway... 

Host: Yes. Nice. But it might not be forever.

Guest: Geopolitics?

Host: Yes. It’s a worry. The big country over there.

Guest: Where would you go if an invasion looked likely?

Host: There’s no way to protect anyone on the island. Sell up for what we could get. Early. Then head back to the mainland.

_________

Voice-over

There is little protection against a big power taking over an island. They can do it with soft power like capital and providing infrastructure. When that doesn’t work, they might fall back on deployment of military materiel. And in a world of burgeoning populations, drum-thumping idealism, egotistical leaders, shrinking resources, finite land area we should expect more attacks. Diplomacy might delay action, but that is a game of carrot and stick.

Russian General addresses the Silk Animal Circus

I'm going to disband circuses...

Announcement…

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General: I'll tell you this. I have a plan. It's a great plan. I'm going to disband circuses.

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(Circus animals murmuring… Ukraine… turning backs on General…walking out)

I'll be invading Ukraine again soon...

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General: I heard that. Don’t think you’re safe there. I’ll be invading Ukraine again soon.

_______

Voice-over

A trusted source reports that the Silk Animal Circus left China because they opposed unending rule and were seen as a political threat. Now they’re leaving Russia. Moving on. Life is not simple any more. Well, maybe some things don’t change. Many leaders hang on to power.

Tactical maneuvre: So, the Silk Animal Circus which dominated culture is leaving Russia. The General will discontinue the cultural portfolio and take over circus management himself.

...

Russian Military Meets Chinese Circus

In a grand hall…

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Russian General: They’re all getting along well.

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Chinese Rabbit Ringleader: All our performers speak Russian.

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Russian General: That is fortunate.

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Chinese Rabbit Ringleader: Even if Russians do not speak Chinese.

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Russian General: That will no doubt come. For now we must present a union against the madness of Washington.

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Four hours later…

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Russian General: A good party, dah?

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Chinese Rabbit Ringleader: But a bit much vodka, she ma? None of your men, from colonel, lieutenant, sergeant to private couldn’t manage it.

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Russian General: And none of your troup! Odin iz nikh!

___________

Voice-over

Matryoshka dolls were traditionally babushka. But this set features five military ranks from general to private. And the Chinese silk animals, after surviving Mao from fifty years ago, couldn’t outperform the Russians in talking and toasting.

...

The Panda in the Kanga Pouch and other metaphors

An animal analogy...

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Trev: Here’s a good metaphor. A panda in a kangaroo pouch. Even rhymes.

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from The Economist, Jan 19th 2019

Basil: Where’s that from?

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Trev: The Economist on January 19th. Clever. The kanga is Australia. The panda is China.

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Basil: What’s the panda doing in the pouch?

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Trev: China is popping up building roads and ports in Pacific islands. Near Australia.

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Basil: Chinese geopolitical strategy in a lot of regions.

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Trev: But what got our goat was that the Chinese wanted to build a military base in Vanuatu.

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Basil: Ouch. Close to home.

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Trev: Right in what we Aussies regard as our “patch”. Even if it is water.

___________

Voice-over

Clear where the artist got the “pouch” idea from. A fair swag of other metaphors in the article too, like “dropping the ball” playing “whack-a-mole.”

...