Black Swan or Gray Rhino?

Economists ponder over pancakes…

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Jocasta: Was the coronavirus a black swan?

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Basil: Some say no. Michele Wucker says it was a gray rhino.

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Jocasta: Gray Rhino?

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Basil: A probable but neglected crisis with a big impact. Not unexpected. The Greek debt crisis. The coronavirus. Warnings had been sounded.

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Jocasta: So what other gray rhinos are lurking?

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Basil: Plenty. Think personal. Illness or accident. At home, a break-in or rodents.

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Jocasta: Yeah. Societal, too. Economic depression and currency collapse. Pandemic, and closed borders. War and terrorism. Earthquake and tsunami.

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Basil: So think, be prepared. Insurance, rat traps.

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Jocasta: Or savings, alternative currencies, gold, even. And higher ground.

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Voice-over

Michele Wucker distinguishes between a black swan which is entirely unexpected and sets off pandemonium, and a visible gray rhino which, when it charges, causes chaos.

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