To vax, or not to vax?

Weighing up chances…

Charles: You had your vax?

Rodney: Got my third one a week ago.

Charles: Good. We’re off to the races then. Literally. Saturday, right?

Rodney: They’ll let us in. But Rachel’s not coming. She’s an antivaxxer.

Charles: Why?

Rodney: She says it’s a gamble. Get vaxxed, suffer a heart attack. No vax, catch a cold.

Charles: Hmm. Or worse. Yes. Unvaxxed, suffer a cold or pneumonia, maybe die. A gamble either way.

Rodney. Admittedly, there are some murmurs, But in the end it’s horses for courses. Literally.

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Voice-over

Odds on favorite: Get vaxxed and you miss the virus or at least don’t get seriously ill.

Outside chance: Don’t get vaxxed to avoid a vanishingly small chance of a side effect.

Depends on which horse you back: go with statistics or place more credence on stories.

Rainfall, Waterfall, Rockfall

After a big rainstorm…

Kristina: I heard that 250 mm fell in 24 hours making it the worst storm in 250 years.
Alain: Hmm. Coincidence that the rainfall of 250 mm equalled the time since an equivalent big storm of 250 years. 
Kristina: Yeah. Odd that. Especially since there were no measurements being taken that long ago. Anyway, the rain was heavy. Walls fell in the street.
Alain: You mean your 10 meter retaining wall?
Kristina: Nope, a meter-high wall up the street. Still, a hundred houses in town are flagged as unliveable.
Alain: And five hundred houses still to be inspected.
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Voice-over
Rogue rainfalls may contribute to hill property prices falling, but flooded properties on the flat may depress prices even further. Freak weather events can slow a rising real estate market.

Gender correlation... or country size?

A cause and effect discussion… 

Undergrad: Countries most affected by this coronavirus include the USA, Brazil, Russia, Spain, the United Kingdom, Italy and France. The countries that are recognized as having managed the crisis best are Germany, Taiwan, New Zealand, Iceland, Finland, Norway and Denmark. Could we conclude that women leaders are more competent at handling a health crisis?

Tutor: That’s one interpretation. But the average population of those male-led countries in round figures is 130 million. The average population of the female-led countries is 20 million. It would be only 8 million if you didn’t include Germany.

 

Undergrad: Hmm. So generally, smaller countries manage the coronavirus crisis better?

 

Tutor: Perhaps. Or maybe smaller countries have political systems that facilitate female leadership more easily?

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Voice-over

It’s complicated. As we have to keep reminding people, a correlation does not necessarily mean that a change in one variable causes a change in another variable. It can, but discussion, experimentation and testing comes first.

Covid 19: How long does it last?

A virologist on Covid 19…

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Reporter: Some of the most common questions about the virus begin with “How long…?”

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We don't know...

Dr Fei Fei: Right. There is the question of how long is it contagious in the air, and how long will this pandemic last.

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Reporter: So when someone coughs or sneezes, how long does the virus stay active on a surface?

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Dr Fei Fei: On plastic or stainless steel, it could still be detectable after a couple of days. On cardboard a day.

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Reporter: And how long do you think before we can go back to normal life?

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Dr Fei Fei: That’s hard. It’s a new virus. It’s not the same as the flu, it’s not the same as SARS. It will pass, but we don’t when. Best guess is it will last months and just maybe next year it will have died down.

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Reporter: About the time when a vaccine is readied?

_________

Voice-over

Numbers add up to pictures and predictions. It’s complicated. Cases per million of population: Japan: 7, Italy: 600. Case fatality rate: average 2% (but higher in elderly and people with underlying health conditions: 10-30%). Country by country, case by case.

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